Falcons running back coach Bobby Turner wants to decrease Devonta Freeman’s carries in 2016.
“It’s about growth,” Turner told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Free had a good year, but I’m expecting even a better year. Well, you’re saying, how can it be better? It can be even better with less carries or less catches because I’d obviously like to get Tevin (Coleman) more involved and that also keeps Free fresher.”
That statement has created the wildfire effect on Freeman’s current ADP. Coachspeak, can misinform fantasy players and lead to painful fantasy decisions.
One thing that stands clear to me: When Devonta Freeman is not on the field, the Atlanta Falcons are not the same team. Although in a small sample size, Tevin Coleman was the dominant ball carrier week 11 and 12. He replaced Freeman who concussed early 1st quarter of week 11. Atlanta lost both games, and scored a combined 31 points. Coleman fumbled in each game, and clearly was a liability in pass pro. When running routes, Matt Ryan showed mistrust and often refused to look his direction.
In light of this, I wanted to take a look at why Free’s production fell off following his return week 13. I watched every single game, every single carry, and this is what I found.
Football is a game of trenches, and Atlanta was not winning. Negative plays did there part in dropping his YPC. Over the last 5 games the offensive line accounted for 24 negative plays netting minus 43 yards. Not seeming like a big deal, this lack of production dropped a 4.6 average to a 4.02. We should also note, Atlanta’s OL ranked 22nd in stuff rate (plays for zero gain).
Why does all of this matter you ask? Well quite simply I am trying to prove Freeman can attain a higher YPC average with better line play. The interior offensive line was key to Atlanta’s struggles. Newly signed center, Alex Mack reunites with OC Kyle Shanahan after their dominant days in Cleveland. “Alex is a three-time Pro Bowler and is an ideal scheme fit for our offense,” GM Thomas Dimitroff said. With this addition, the negative/stuffed plays should drop significantly. Clearly aiding in Freeman’s overall 2016 production.
Now lets get to the Tevin Coleman factor. Not only is Freeman the more reliable pass protector and receiving back (73 rec for 578 yards in 2015), he’s the superior red zone threat. Evident in his league leading 47 RZ attempts. Comparing the two backs inside the five, Free converted 5-of-11 runs into touchdowns. While upright and stiff, Coleman converted just 1-of-5. Tevin who was running gunner duties last season, averaged just below three touches a game while Freeman was the starter.
Bobby Turner’s words were, “keep Free fresher”. When factoring in what Freeman brings to the table, there’s one instance where Coleman’s playing time should increase. When Atlanta has a double digit lead, and wants to chew clock. This speaks to keeping their starter “FRESH”. Although based off Vegas odds, (Atlanta’s win total being 7 games) I don’t see this being a critical factor for Freeman owners.
Let’s not forget how good Freeman’s 2015 campaign was. As a Pro Bowler, in 14 full games he amassed 1,595 yards, 73 receptions and 14 touchdowns. That’s equivalent to 317 fantasy points or 22.64 FP/G! To give perspective, Le’Veon Bell’s marvelous 2014 season he averaged 23.15 FP/G.
Already showcasing his ceiling as the top RB last season. We can safely project Freeman’s carries to decline, but to think he falls off a fantasy cliff is absurd. MFL10 ADP data surely suggest the latter. As he is currently the 8th RB selected and 20th overall. We should thank our competitors and BUY Freeman while we still can. With a built in floor due to his passing game skills and red zone abilities, he’s one of the safest selections this season.
Projection: 257 att for 1,061 yards, 75 rec for 558 yards and 11 total touchdowns.
Running Back Target (Team) RankingsEmbed from Getty Images
When we look at the past two seasons, we must realize lots of change has taken place in the NFL. With such quick turnarounds including but not limited to, coaching staff, player personnel, scheme, and game flow we can evaluate each teams running back targets to the best of our ability. For example: when a coach like Marc Trestman leaves, I would fully expect RB targets to go down in Chicago and go up in Baltimore. When a player like Shane Vereen changes teams, I would expect the impending team’s RB targets to go up. Both examples are accurate as you will see below. I have the rankings in order, top to bottom from last season’s 2015/2016 statistics, and (2014/2015) will be in parenthesis.
By doing this we generate a solid base line of what teams to avoid and target in our PPR leagues.
1.Philadelphia Eagles: 178 (102) Offense based on quick reads.
2.Detroit Lions: 173 (165) Theo Riddick 99 targets last season.
3.San Diego Chargers: 172 (110) Shows the impact of Woodhead inj.
4.New England Patriots: 163 (108) Lewis/White combined 104 Tgts.
5.Baltimore Ravens: 160 (108) Trestman with CHI previous season.
6.New York Giants: 138 (100) Vereen in NE year prior.
7.Atlanta Falcons: 137 (133) Consistent numbers for Freeman.
8.Oakland Raiders: 126 (160) Drafted DeAndre Washington.
9.New York Jets: 125 (81) Numbers should go up with Forte/Powell.
10.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 119 (94) Sims very safe play in PPR.
11.Cincinnati Bengals: 111 (121) Gio consistent value.
12.Cleveland Browns: 108 (48) Targets doubled when Duke arrived.
13.Chicago Bears: 105 (137) Numbers dipped when Trestman left.
14.Houston Texans: 104 (90) Lamar should be on everyone’s radar.
15.Miami Dolphins: 103 (102) Gase similar targets coming from CHI.
16.Washington Redskins: 102 (104) Keith Marshall super sleeper.
17.New Orleans Saints: 101 (166) Prior year leader -> Ingram.
18.San Francisco 49ers: 100 (64) Chip in town, Draughn value pick.
19.Arizona Cardinals: 98 (111) DJ avg 5.3 Tgts/G after taking over.
20.Indianapolis Colts: 97 (114) Ferguson potential 3rd down back.
21.Tennessee Titans: 97 (100) Dexter McCluster.
22.Minnesota Vikings: 96 (118) AP just 36 targets last season.
23.Green Bay Packers: 93 (90) Lacy 55 targets previous season.
24.Seattle Seahawks: 93 (74) Drafted C.J. Prosise.
25.Dallas Cowboys: 91 (92) Elliot every down back.
26.Jacksonville Jaguars: 89 (101) Yeldon to take over 3rd downs.
27.Los Angeles Rams: 84 (116) Gurley can increase his catch total.
28.Buffalo Bills: 81 (154) Targets cliff dived this past season.
29.Pittsburgh Steelers: 81 (132) Bell had 105 targets in 2014.
30.Denver Broncos: 79 (98) CJA avg 40 targets last two seasons.
31.Kansas City Chiefs: 76 (136) Charles critical to K.C. offense.
32.Carolina Panthers: 63 (68) Bottom 30 two years in a row.