Week 8 TNF Fade the Public

Posted: October 24, 2013 in Uncategorized

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The Carolina Panthers tonight are traveling to divisional foe Tampa Bay Buccaneer’s. They are red hot, but are receiving a ridiculous line of-7 on the road. Yes Tampa is 0-6, but don’t think they won’t show up for this divisional game. The Buccaneer’s have lost multiple games by a small margin, and meanwhile Carolina is just a mediocre team. The Panthers have not beat any team all that great to justify this line tonight. Look for this game to be about ball control, and a low scoring affair. Something like 13-16, and Tampa covers the +7 in the under tonight!

 

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Tonight’s game features 2 strong defensive units, in what should be a struggle to put up points. The Seahawk’s are traveling to a stadium where they have lost there last 6 of 7 match ups. They have struggled the past three games losing to Indianapolis, beating Houston because of an air headed play on Matt Shaub, and not covering the spread against Tennessee. This team has not been able to put up a ton of points on anyone and proven to struggle in the redzone this year. The Cardinals will show up for this divisional game and can win tonight! I expect a low scoring tug of war, dog fight tonight.

Pick Arizona +7 in the under of 41. Good luck and good gambling!

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NFL Teaser Bets

Posted: September 21, 2013 in Uncategorized

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The NFL teaser bet can be a popular choice. The problem with teaser bets, is there like cheerleaders, they look real pretty but not so nice!

These bets are usually for those scared to bet straight ATS and decide rather to add an additional +6 points to the betting line. Although this is not my favorite bet what so ever, there is a strategy that can be applied.

When you look at you betting lines you will see a line that looks like this: NYG -3 (-125). If you want to find the key to betting teasers, it’s in the Vegas lines already. Here they are stating  by the -125 line, that the Giants are favored with the betting line of -3. So if you didn’t love this line you could tease it 6 points and it would become NYG +3.

The biggest problem with betting teasers is you lose a lot of the line value. Most books make you bet 2 teams per teaser bet. So the only way you can win on these is to tease enough lines to max your profit. It’s a bigger risk, but it will be worth the reward. Let me explain further.

If you take 2 teams and tease them, your winning line would look like this. Generally for every 1 unti you bet you will receive .9 units back. This will only increase as the more teams you put in your bet. 3 teams= 1.6 to 1, 4 teams=2.6 to 1, 5 teams=4 to 1 so on and so forth. As you see the more teams the more profit.

So now to deceiver how to predict which teams to have in your teaser bets. You are going to want to tease games that your sure of the winner, or a team who’s sure to cover. You want to be on the winning side of a potential blow out and on the side of a close game! As explained above, look for the bookies lines that are (-115) or higher to help you make these selections. As an example for this week: I believe that New England will win out right, but not sure if they can cover the points. I do however could see a blow out here, so I would tease there line and not there opponents. Another example for this week, I would tease Baltimore although I don’t think they will win I think they will cover. I think this game will be a closer game so I would rather have the points.

I hope some of this makes sense and can help this season. I will Post my teaser picks in a weekly blog! Thanks and good luck

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Thursday Night Game 9/19

Posted: September 19, 2013 in Uncategorized

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Here’s a quick note, this game is a tough one to handicap! If you want the short answer, figure out the under over in this one. If you think its the over, go with the Eagles. If its in the under, than it’s the Chiefs. If you want my analysis on this game than here it is!

I like the Chiefs in the under. Why? because this is a game that will be won by coaching!  You have to be foolish if you don’t think Andy Reid has not circled, highlighted, and even sprinkled some glitter on his calendar for today’s game! Yes the offensive game scheme has changed for the Philadelphia, but the players have not. Reid knows his old team well, knows there weakness and will exploit them tonight. Chip Kelly’s response to his lackluster defense? He stated he will play a more conservative defense this week! That makes no sense against a team with Alex Smith, who if not blitzed will sit in the pocket, dink and dunk you to death. I would also look for Jamal Charles to be delivering packages all night, though the air and ground.

If this hasn’t changed your mind yet, than let’s remember this is Philadelphia’s 3rd game in 11 days! Not a lot of rest and game planning when you have to turn around and play in a few days. Don’t get me wrong, I think if the Eagles can stay healthy they could be a decent football team this year. Tonight however I am seeing a team who will be worn down and is mistake prone, 9 penalties for 77 yards last week. I see a Kansas City defense slowing down Phili enough to get a lead and keep it. Last but not least, look for Andy Reid to CONTROL the football tonight. Time of possession for the Chiefs will be key to victory tonight!

My pick K.C. +3 1/2 in the under.

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Week 2 Best Bets

Posted: September 15, 2013 in Uncategorized

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Well we started the week out right hitting a 2 team parlay on Thursday night! For those who are following me on twitter @mBULLETo you would have nailed that parlay too! Anyways This week I am seeing a lot of juicy lines and loving how the public is betting! Why do I love the public betting trends this week? Because they look wrong on a lot of picks! My 2 picks I feel great about for Sunday are, Carolina -3 and Chicago -6. Here’s why:

Carolina -3

They are traveling to Buffalo weather conditions look to be good, very slight chance of rain. The Panthers played Seattle very tough at home last week, losing 7-12. That being said it was a defensive struggle vs a very good offensive team. They shut down Marshawn Lynch to 43 yards on 17 attempts! Yes the Carolina run d is that good. They did let Wilson let loose and ultimately lost the game through the air. Which brings me to the next point, they are getting Mike Mitchell there starting SS back this week. This will sure up there pass defense and EJ Manuel is not Russell Wilson, not yet at least. Getting to Carolinas offense. They will be looking to run all over a weak Buffalo run defense, who saw New England shred them last week. Don’t think the pass offense can’t get going either because it will, look for Steve Smith and Cam Newton to connect deep against the Bills weak secondary! The Panthers will come out roaring this weekend and will roll big this weekend. Lay the 3 points and cruise to a big win! Carolina 28-16

Chicago -6

This game is much like the one above, seeing another strong defense against a weaker offense. The big difference in this game, it will be played at Soldier Field and will be loud! I know the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, but seriously that’s all they have. Chicago will stack the box take him away as best as they can and force one of the worst QB’s in the league to throw the ball. Ponder trying to win the game, never a good thing, but against the Bears secondary = disaster. He threw 3 picks last week against the Lions and I would expect the same outcome in this one. As far as the Bears offense, with Trestman wanting to get Matt Forte more involved, all he has to do is look at last weeks game film! All he will see is Reggie Bush and Joique Bell destroying the Vikings. I really can’t see Minnesota putting up more than 10-13 points in this game, and easily see Chicago coasting with a 2 touchdown lead! Chicago 31-13

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Fantasy Football Value Plays

Posted: September 7, 2013 in Uncategorized

Here’s to the start of the 2013 NFL season. Among other things on this site I will be posting my weekly Fantasy Football Value Plays. This will give you a list of the top ten plays for the week. You can use them for the daily sites or your home leagues! By each players name I will give a brief reason as to why to go with them or explain why they have a good match up. You will also see a dollar amount which will indicate how much they cost on sites such as Fanduel or Draftstreet. Good luck to everyone this season!

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1st FF Draft of 2013

Posted: September 6, 2013 in Uncategorized

Thursday, August 15, 2013
First fantasy football draft of 2013!
Well today I couldn’t wait any longer, and decided to do the first draft of the year! What a draft it turned out to be, getting ridiculous value in the early rounds and nailing some good picks late. I’ll go over some of my thoughts as I explain how the draft unfolded. Figured I’d throw this into a blog since our FF site is not up yet! Sit back enjoy, feel free to try and nitpick me!

This was a 12 team PPR snake draft, and I had the 9th overall selection.

Pick 1: I was really hoping that Calvin Johnson would fall to me in this spot, and than land a top 5 WR with the next pick as well. This did not happen as CJ went one pick ahead of me. Luckily tho Lesean McCoy fell down the boards and that was an easy pick for me at the 9 spot! Shady McCoy is my #4 RB in ppr, and the only Philadelphia Eagle I tend to target.
Pick 2: As I stated before I wanted to get 2 top 5 WR’s in the first 2 rounds so this pick was a no brainier as well, as Brandon Marshall fell back to me in round 2. I would have considered Matt Forte or Dez Bryant here as well but both were gone before my pick. Either way I love this pick and always have been very fond of Mr. B Marsh! Marc Trestman’s offense is going to be a good thing for Marshall this year. He could honestly push Marshall into Calvin Johnson territory, who everyone thinks is the sole #1 WR.
Pick 3: This is where it gets good! I had Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush at the top of my Que. Sproles went a few picks ahead of me, and some how Bush feel to me in the latter part of the 3rd! WOW this should not happen in a PPR draft! Standard I could see it, but never PPR. I have R. Bush and D. Sproles 11 and 12 on my RB rankings. Both guys will catch the ball a ton in there uptempo offenses this year. I know there is some who will argue injury concerns with Bush, but I address that with a latter handcuff pick!
Pick 4: When it’s good, it’s great! Lamar Miller come on down! Could not believe I just started this draft out landing this RB core and still got Marshall. Miller is normally a early 3rd round pick and some who are high on him think about him in the late 2nd. This kid is talented and he is the only real talented back in Miami. Sorry Daniel Thomas but I have never bought into you! This was another Walmart Super Saver, yep that’s the line I’m going with! Who can beat there prices, I mean come on its friggen Walmart lol.
Pick 5: Here is a pick that you will either love or hate. I did not like the tier of WR’s left because they flew off the board much faster than a normal draft would entail. So I decided to go with Vernon Davis. He is my 3rd TE on the board and dam near my 2nd. Jason Witten had already gone a round earlier and I really believe late 5th round for Davis is very good value. I really like the rapport that he has worked on with Kaepernick, and really think he is the #1 target in that offense with Crabtree injured.
Pick 6: This pick I struggled with. I ended up going with Tavon Austin and his upside he would provide to this already very solid team. The reason it was such a hard pick was again the WR depth left. My normal guys I target in this spot where all gone! Cecil Shorts, James Jones and a few others gone before round 6! So I began debating Austin, Mike Wallace, and Desean Jackson. I really don’t like WR’s who change teams and the camp reports of Wallace have not exactly been glowing for him. Jackson I do like, but having McCoy already, I didn’t feel that a double dip on that team was the wisest of selections. So I reached my decision and went with Austin to be my WR2.
Pick 7: This pick was a reach, no way around it! But here’s why: WR depth and I had 3 QB’s in my que with only one team behind me that needed one. So I decided on the best WR available and he is a guy who I do like a lot this year. Josh Gordon, yes I know he is suspended for 2 weeks but it does not matter to me. I won’t be needing to start him week 1 or 2 and he is very good depth for me. I think this guy is a stud WR waiting to really break out this year, and he has the QB to get him the deep ball. I’m usually targeting him in the 9th but this will do.
Pick 8: The QB’s I had in my que as I just mentioned where, RGIII, Russel Wilson and Tony Romo. The team who needed a QB decided to pick Tony Romo. That actually made this a really tough choice for me because I really like both RGIII and Wilson. I do have Griffin ranked higher than Wilson and ultiamtely I decided to stick to my rankings. I think His upside and ceiling are higher than Wilson’s. Selecting RGIII does however make my team vulnerable if he is to re-injure himself. So I must grab a solid back up QB earlier than usual.
Pick 9: This to me was another great value pick. Mark Ingram was my 9th round selection. This guy has had a great camp and is healthy for the first time in his short NFL career. Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints have continued to say, they are going to be dedicated to the run this year. That can only bode well for the recent Heisman Trophy winner!
Pick 10: Here is my, may I be the first to say stud back up QB! Yea I am that high on Andy Dalton. If you don’t believe in the Red Rifle than that’s fine by me. I will continue to grab this guy in every draft! He had a solid first year, a much improved 2nd year, and his 3rd year will be top 10 worthy! The Cincinnati Bengals have done nothing but give this guy more weapons to an already potent offense. They went out and drafted Giovanni Bernard, and Tyler Eifert both who will make big impacts to this offense. They already have A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, Mahamed Sanu, and sleeper alert Dane Sanzenbacher! Dalton will produce at a high level this year and I love having him as a back up QB.
Pick 11: Went with the upside of Ryan Broyles. This guy not only set the all-time NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision record for career receptions, but he was also twice an All-American. Did I mention he is on a team with Matthew Stafford who throws the ball enough to lose an arm?
Pick 12: This was the handcuff pick, also considered a reach but in my opinion a needed one. Joique Bell is the handcuff to Reggie Bush and it helps that I like him. He’s a lot like Bush in a sense and will step right if an injury occurs.
Pick 13: UGH I missed my Bengals DST! Yea I know I’m high on the Bengals this year, and at 33-1 to win the Superbowl, I’m all over that!! lol anyways, I decided to go with a back up TE here one who did not have the same bye as Davis. I like Jordan Cameron as a great value upside pick here. I think in the Chud/Norval scheme he could be a top 10 fantasy TE.
Pick 14: Nothing much to say here. Took the best available DST left in New England.
Pick 15: Again blah blah stupid kicker.
Pick 16: Was a last round debate, between a few guys and ultimately went with Dujuan Harris. I like Eddie Lacy a lot, and as a die hard Packer fan I hop he stays healthy. Reality being that he has proven not be I like Dujuan Harris here. It’s funny but he is still being said to be the #1RB for Green Bay, but I know that’s just Motivation for Lacy.